{"id":6108,"date":"2025-06-03T15:56:56","date_gmt":"2025-06-03T12:56:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/?p=6108"},"modified":"2025-06-04T14:58:44","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T11:58:44","slug":"2-haziran-2025-rusya-ukrayna-baris-muzakereleri-durum-degerlendirilmesi-ve-gelecek-senaryolari-iskender-okyay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/2-haziran-2025-rusya-ukrayna-baris-muzakereleri-durum-degerlendirilmesi-ve-gelecek-senaryolari-iskender-okyay\/","title":{"rendered":"2 HAZ\u0130RAN 2025 RUSYA-UKRAYNA BARI\u015e M\u00dcZAKERELER\u0130 Durum De\u011ferlendirilmesi ve Gelecek Senaryolar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u0130skender OKYAY<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1 Haziran&#8217;da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131nda meydana gelen ve bir ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fi tahmin edilen iki tren yolu k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 ve trenlerin zarar g\u00f6rmesi ayr\u0131ca Sibirya\u2019daki hava \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik, uzun menzilli \u00e7ok say\u0131da askeri u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n tahrip edilmesine yol a\u00e7an \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda bug\u00fcn (2 Haziran) \u0130stanbul\u2019da yap\u0131lacak olan Rusya ve Ukrayna heyetleri aras\u0131ndaki bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden \u00f6nemli bir sonucun \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. En iyi \u015fartlarda yeni bir esir takas\u0131 ve belli b\u00f6lgelerde sivillerin korunmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 tali anla\u015fmalara gidilmesi s\u00f6z konusu olabilecektir.<br \/>\nRus taraf\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden vazge\u00e7memesinin sebebinin, Ukrayna sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ihtimalle \u0130ngiliz istihbarat\u0131 ve askeri birimlerinin deste\u011fi ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011finin Kremlin y\u00f6netimince tahmin edilerek, \u0130ngiliz h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Rusya-Ukrayna g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini sabote etme \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131n inatla bo\u015fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Putin y\u00f6netimi \u201cher \u015feye ra\u011fmen masadayd\u0131k\u201d diyerek d\u00fcnya kamuoyuna bar\u0131\u015f taraftar\u0131 oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verebilecektir.<br \/>\nMoskova\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu sald\u0131r\u0131lara a\u011f\u0131r bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fi muhakkakt\u0131r. Ancak, bunun derhal de\u011fil \u201cmakul\u201d bir s\u00fcre sonras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131r.<br \/>\nBundan sonra Rusya\u2019n\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131 hedefinde Ukrayna Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Volodymyr Zelensky ve ekibinin olaca\u011f\u0131 hemen hemen kesindir. Bu nedenle Kiev\u2019in yap\u0131lacak bir kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131da a\u011f\u0131r hasar almas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131d\u0131r.<br \/>\nAyn\u0131 \u015fekilde ba\u015fta \u0130ngiltere ve Almanya olmak \u00fczere Avrupa \u015fehirlerinde bir dizi tats\u0131z geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 da bir olas\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131r. Bunun do\u011frudan bir askeri sald\u0131r\u0131dan ziyade asimetrik bir tek vuru\u015f \u015feklinde ve kimin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 me\u00e7hul bir olay \u015feklinde geli\u015fmesi muhtemeldir.<br \/>\nRusya\u2019n\u0131n Sibirya b\u00f6lgesindeki IHA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda gafil avland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kesindir. Kremlin y\u00f6netimi \u015fimdi kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra farkl\u0131 bir korunma konsepti geli\u015ftirmek zorunda kalacakt\u0131r.<br \/>\nRus hava kuvvetlerinin a\u011f\u0131r bombard\u0131man u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 IHA sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ABD\u2019nin de benzer \u015fekildeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kartm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 hasebiyle \u00f6nemlidir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD\u2019nin de t\u0131pk\u0131 Rusya gibi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 anla\u015fmalarla birbirlerine kar\u015f\u0131 n\u00fckleer \u00fcslerin korunmas\u0131 konseptini art\u0131k her y\u00f6nden gelecek benzer sald\u0131r\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 koruyacak \u015fekilde yeniden \u015fekillendirmesi g\u00fcndeme gelecektir.<br \/>\nMevcut durumda g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 gereken en \u00f6nemli nokta sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesi taraftar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm kar\u015f\u0131 propagandaya ra\u011fmen esasen Rusya oldu\u011fudur. Ancak, bu durum Rusya\u2019n\u0131n kazan\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ve hedeflerinden feragat edece\u011fi \u015feklinde de anla\u015f\u0131lmamal\u0131d\u0131r.<br \/>\n\u0130ngiltere, AB\u2019deki ba\u015fta Almanya ve Fransa olmak \u00fczere fikirda\u015flar\u0131 ve Zelensky y\u00f6netimiyle birlikte sava\u015f\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131 arzular g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<br \/>\nZelensky ve ekibi sava\u015f\u0131n bitmesinin kendi sonlar\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelece\u011fini bilmekte ve o nedenle \u00fclkenin harap olmas\u0131 pahas\u0131na sava\u015f\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131 istemektedirler.<br \/>\n\u0130ngiltere ise Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 sayesinde, bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 AB\u2019yi d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan tahakk\u00fcm\u00fc alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 becermektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, Almanya\u2019y\u0131 yan\u0131nda tutarak bu \u00fclkenin ekonomik bak\u0131mdan zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 (askeri harcamalar, pahal\u0131ya mal olan enerji hammaddesi al\u0131m\u0131, geni\u015f Rusya pazar\u0131n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131) sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. Bu perspektiften bak\u0131nca yeni \u015eans\u00f6lye se\u00e7ilen Friedrich Merz (CDU) \u0130ngiltere i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir aparat olarak belirmektedir. ABD \u00fczerindeki etkisini Kas\u0131m 2024\u2019te yeniden Ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ilen Donald Trump y\u00f6netimiyle birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kaybeden \u0130ngiltere \u015fimdi bu eksi\u011fi Almanya ile kapatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<br \/>\n\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin y\u00fczy\u0131llard\u0131r en b\u00fcy\u00fck korkusu k\u0131ta Avrupas\u0131\u2019nda siyasi ve\/veya ekonomik bir Rus-Alman ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ngiliz y\u00f6netimleri er ge\u00e7 gelecek olan bu i\u015f birli\u011finin hegemonyalar\u0131n\u0131n sonu olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmekte ve bunu engellemeye en az\u0131ndan s\u00fcreyi uzatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131rlar.<br \/>\n\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin buradaki \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131, mevcut stratejide Almanya i\u00e7erisinde AfD\u2019nin (Alternative f\u00fcr Deutschland) giderek g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f ideoloji ta\u015f\u0131yan bu partinin Rusya\u2019daki rejimle son derece yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Zira Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan zay\u0131flamas\u0131 i\u00e7eride AfD\u2019yi giderek daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmekte ve Merz\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fckle olu\u015fturdu\u011fu koalisyonu zay\u0131flatmaktad\u0131r.<br \/>\n\u0130ki b\u00fcy\u00fck D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f nedeni olan Avrupa k\u0131tas\u0131ndaki en az \u00fc\u00e7 y\u00fcz y\u0131ll\u0131k m\u00fccadelenin ancak \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin ihtiras ve hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131n bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Zira \u0130ngiltere, hangi a\u015famada nas\u0131l reaksiyon verece\u011fi \u00e7ok da kestirilemeyecek d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00e7ok n\u00fckleer silah\u0131na sahip Rusya\u2019y\u0131 sonuna kadar tahrik ederek son derece tehlikeli bir kumarla adeta III. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlayacak bir siyaset izlemekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmamaktad\u0131r.<br \/>\nKremlin\u2019in mevcut y\u00f6netimi ise en az 150 senedir olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na katlanmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Anglo-Sakson etkisinin muhtemelen bu d\u00f6nemde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimalinin belirdi\u011fini g\u00f6rmekte ve m\u00fccadeleden ilk kez sonu\u00e7 alabilece\u011fini&nbsp;kestirmektedir.<\/p>\n<a href=\" https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/politika-notu040625.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"shortc-button medium black\">Full Text<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130skender OKYAY 1 Haziran&#8217;da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131nda meydana gelen ve bir ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fi tahmin edilen iki tren yolu k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 ve trenlerin zarar g\u00f6rmesi ayr\u0131ca Sibirya\u2019daki hava \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik, uzun menzilli \u00e7ok say\u0131da askeri u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n tahrip edilmesine yol a\u00e7an \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda bug\u00fcn (2 Haziran) \u0130stanbul\u2019da yap\u0131lacak olan Rusya ve Ukrayna heyetleri aras\u0131ndaki bar\u0131\u015f &#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6119,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[91],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6108"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6108"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6108\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6118,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6108\/revisions\/6118"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}