{"id":694,"date":"2014-05-30T15:38:12","date_gmt":"2014-05-30T12:38:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/?p=694"},"modified":"2015-03-31T10:16:45","modified_gmt":"2015-03-31T07:16:45","slug":"genel-ekonomik-degerlendirme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/genel-ekonomik-degerlendirme\/","title":{"rendered":"GENEL EKONOM\u0130K DE\u011eERLEND\u0130RME"},"content":{"rendered":"

Halil \u0130. Y\u0131lmaz<\/strong><\/p>\n

Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet\u00a0\u015eim\u015fek, TBMM Plan ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Komisyonu’nda 2014 Y\u0131l\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7esi’ne ili\u015fkin bir sunum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7esini daha iyi analiz edebilmek i\u00e7in bu yaz\u0131mda ekonomiyi genel ba\u015fl\u0131klarda de\u011ferlendirmek istiyorum. Bir sonraki yaz\u0131mda ise 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7esini yazaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00d6ncelikle h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u00a0\u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d\u00a0<\/b>s\u00fcreci olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan yeniden dengelenme s\u00fcrecini iyi y\u00f6netti\u011fini ifade edebiliriz. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te makroekonomik istikrar korunup, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc mali dengeler muhafaza edilirken, y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde istihdam sa\u011flan\u0131p i\u015fsizlik bir miktar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Ancak T\u00fcrkiye’nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 Avrupa Birli\u011fi’nin (AB) krizde olmas\u0131, jeopolitik gerginliklerin artmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesi gibi nedenlerden dolay\u0131 da ancak y\u00fczde 2,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebildik. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 3,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda g\u00f6stergelere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda y\u00fczde 3,6\u2019l\u0131k bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyorum.<\/p>\n

Bu oran ge\u00e7en y\u0131l h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00fczde 4’l\u00fck OVP hedefinin bir miktar alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Ancak bu y\u0131l hemen hemen t\u00fcm geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin OVP b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 4, 2015 ve 2016’da ise y\u00fczde 5\u2019tir.<\/p>\n

\u0130stihdam<\/b><\/p>\n

Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yeterli d\u00fczeyde sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir sorun olmaya devam ederken T\u00fcrkiye’de Mart 2009’dan bu yana 4,7 milyon ki\u015fiye ilave istihdam sa\u011fland\u0131. Oysa ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nde 2,2 milyon istihdam kayb\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye, 2009-2013 d\u00f6neminde IMF verilerine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4,8 olan ortalama y\u0131ll\u0131k istihdam art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131yla birinci s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca OECD taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan \u0130stihdam Raporu’na g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye, bu y\u0131l ve gelecek y\u0131l OECD’de en fazla istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclecek \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclke olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan, T\u00fcrkiye Avrupa’n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunu olan gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizlikle m\u00fccadelede \u00e7ok daha etkin sonu\u00e7lar almaktad\u0131r. Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nde y\u00fczde 23,4 ile rekor seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kan gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye’de Temmuz 2013’te y\u00fczde 18 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. \u00dclkemiz, gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusuna ra\u011fmen bu oran\u0131 2009 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana 7,3 puan indirerek Avrupa’da en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na sahip 11’inci \u00fclke olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon<\/b><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l dengelenme s\u00fcrecine paralel olarak enflasyon y\u00fczde 6,2 ile son 44 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 2013’te enflasyon oran\u0131, i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da ve t\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 gibi nedenlerden hedefin \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 7,9 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyon, bu y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 7,0 gelecek y\u0131lsonunda ise y\u00fczde 5,5 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorum.<\/p>\n

Mali Denge<\/b><\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmetin ekonomide son 11 y\u0131lda elde ettikleri ba\u015far\u0131da, 2002 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 maliye politikalar\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir rol oynad\u0131. Gelecek d\u00f6nemde d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini koruyacak ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi sa\u011flayacak etmenlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda yine mali disiplin geliyor.<\/p>\n

Bu politikalar sayesinde genel devlet b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSYH’ye oran\u0131 son 11 y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 puan azalarak 2013’te y\u00fczde 1’e geriledi. B\u00f6ylelikle 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSYH’ye oran\u0131 OECD \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 4,3’l\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00f6rtte birinden az, Maastricht Kriterinin ise \u00fc\u00e7te biri kadar olacakt\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmet genel devlet b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSYH’ye oran\u0131n\u0131 gelecek d\u00f6nemde de azaltmaya devam ederek 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,5’e indirmeyi hedefliyor.<\/p>\n

Bor\u00e7<\/b><\/p>\n

AB tan\u0131ml\u0131 bor\u00e7 stokunun GSYH’ye oran\u0131n\u0131 ise son 11 y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 35 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm bu oran, OECD ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birinden az, Maastricht Kriterinin ise neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 kadard\u0131r. Benzer \u015fekilde kamu net bor\u00e7 stokunun GSYH’ye oran\u0131 da son 11 y\u0131lda 47 puan azalarak 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15’e d\u00fc\u015fecektir.\u00a02013 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclkemiz 19 y\u0131l sonra ilk defa IMF’ye olan borcunu s\u0131f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G20 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fma ile IMF’ye 5 milyar dolarl\u0131k kredi a\u00e7ma taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bulunmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Faiz<\/b><\/p>\n

2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda reel faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 25,4, faiz giderlerinin vergi gelirlerine oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 85,7 seviyesindeydi. Mali disiplin sayesinde reel faiz son be\u015f y\u0131ld\u0131r tek hanelerde seyretmektedir. Faiz giderlerinin vergi gelirlerine oran\u0131 ise 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15,5 ile 1982 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. GSYH’ye oran olarak da y\u00fczde 3,2 ile faiz giderleri son 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyine inmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Netice olarak t\u00fcm bu rakamlar, uluslararas\u0131 arenada T\u00fcrkiye’nin kredibilitesini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye’nin kredi notu 19 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk defa ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Fitch taraf\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir not seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Bu y\u0131l ise Moody’s’in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Japon (Japan Credit Rating Agency) ve Kanadal\u0131 (Dominion Bond Rating Services) kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye uluslararas\u0131 d\u00f6rt kurulu\u015f taraf\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyede not alm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Halil \u0130. Y\u0131lmaz Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet\u00a0\u015eim\u015fek, TBMM Plan ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Komisyonu’nda 2014 Y\u0131l\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7esi’ne ili\u015fkin bir sunum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7esini daha iyi analiz edebilmek i\u00e7in bu yaz\u0131mda ekonomiyi genel ba\u015fl\u0131klarda de\u011ferlendirmek istiyorum. Bir sonraki yaz\u0131mda ise 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7esini yazaca\u011f\u0131m. B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00d6ncelikle h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u00a0\u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d\u00a0s\u00fcreci olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan yeniden dengelenme s\u00fcrecini iyi y\u00f6netti\u011fini ifade …<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":695,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=694"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":697,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694\/revisions\/697"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/695"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tesam.org.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}